As I said yesterday (LISA MADIGAN IS NOT IN THE RACE,BUT THIS POST IS FAR FROM MOOT, 7/15/13), the Mike Madigan/Metra scandal had
little, if anything, to do with Lisa Madigan’s decision not to run for
governor. What is new about Mike
Madigan sinking his tentacles into another state agency? As I put it yesterday
In other words, if
people were going to vote for Lisa Madigan because they have bought into the
mythology surrounding her and/or they make their voting decisions based on 30
second commercials, Mr. Madigan’s machinations at Metra will make minimal, at
most, difference. There is simply
nothing new here that would influence her decision or the voters’ opinions
regarding her.
So why did Ms. Madigan decide not to run for governor? Yours truly can come up with a number of
reasons that don’t conform to the groupthink that permeates the Chicago
media.
First, this was going to be a very tough race for Lisa
Madigan. Any genuine three way race,
and especially any three way primary, involving any incumbent would be tough
for any challenger. One’s hat has to be
off to Bill Daley in this regard who, perhaps tired of waiting for Lisa’s
Hamlet act to conclude, entered the race, making life very difficult for Lisa
Madigan. Do you think for a minute that
if Bill Daley were not in the race, Lisa Madigan would have stayed out?
Some will argue that Mr. Daley was not necessarily
displaying any courage by getting in the race, that he somehow knew that Lisa
would not get in and/or cut a deal to keep her out. If this is the case, it is testimony to Mr.
Daley’s craftiness, ability to cut deals, and covering all the bases, not at
all undesirable qualities in a governor of any state, but especially of this
state. On the other hand, if Mr. Daley
genuinely had no idea what Ms. Madigan was going to do and entered the race
anyway, he showed some real courage and sense of mission. As I wrote on 6/6 (“GOVERNOR BILLDALEY…SENATOR BILL DALEY. THERE JUSTWASN’T THE TIME…”)
Yours truly finds it
hard to believe that Mr. Daley is so concerned about our state that he would
throw political considerations out the window and charge ahead despite the long
odds against him defeating both Mr. Quinn and Ms. Madigan in the Democratic
primary. That’s why I still think he
will only run if he somehow knows Lisa Madigan will stay out of the race, which
I can’t see happening.
If I’m wrong, though,
and Mr. Daley runs despite the near impossibility of winning in a three way
race, I would give him more credit than I already do. Though we’ve always had our differences
(politically and ideologically, not personally; I don’t know Mr. Daley and have
never met Mr. Daley, which is unfortunate for both of us, but I digress), I’ve
always respected Bill Daley. He is
smart, hardworking, imbued by his parents with some great values, and knows the
art of politics which is, after all, bringing people together to get things
done. He’s consequently been quite
effective in whatever he has attempted.
He is the kind of guy we should want in public office.
Either way, Bill Daley comes out of this particular episode
looking smart and/or courageous.
Still, though, Lisa Madigan, had she entered the race, would
have been the front-runner, given her $5 million campaign fund, her immense largely
bi-partisan popularity, and her being the only woman in the three way
race. On the other hand, Lisa Madigan,
after an initial tough race for Attorney General in 2002, has won every contest
for reelection in a cakewalk. She has
therefore developed a very Daleyesque aversion (until recently, apparently) to
running in elections that aren’t mere technicalities. See my 6/6/13
post, “GOVERNOR BILL DALEY…SENATOR BILLDALEY. THERE JUSTWASN’T THE TIME…” This one would have
been more than an exercise in going through the motions.
There is something to the argument that Lisa dropped out
because of perceptions of her father, but not much. Let’s translate her statement of yesterday…
"Ultimately,
however, there has always been another consideration that impacts my decision.
I feel strongly that the state would not be well served by having a governor
and speaker of the House from the same family and have never planned to run for
governor if that would be the case. With Speaker Madigan planning to continue
in office, I will not run for governor."
Once we eliminate the lies that come as naturally as any
politician as swimming comes to any fish, what Ms. Madigan really was saying
I feel strongly that MY
RACE FOR GOVERNOR WOULD BE MARGINALLY MORE
DIFFICULT IF MY FATHER REMAINED SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE; THEREFORE,. with Speaker
Madigan planning to continue in office, I will not run for governor."
As I said yesterday, and back on 6/19/13 (MIKE ANDLISA MADIGAN: WHAT’S A DAD TO DO?),
this talk of Mike Madigan hurting his daughter’s chances at becoming governor
is preposterous once one looks beyond one branch on one tree. Simply put, where would Lisa Madigan be if
her father were not Mike Madigan? As a friend
of mine said yesterday, she might be working in the Attorney General’s office,
but she wouldn’t be Attorney General. To
which I would add that she never would have been a state senator and would be
largely unknown outside her circle of friends, let alone be considered a strong
candidate for governor. Talented and
smart? Yes. But lots of people are at least equally
talented and smart and would be at least as good in the offices she has held,
holds, or aspires to hold…but never got the chance because their fathers were
not Mike Madigan.
Further, just a few weeks ago, Lisa Madigan said her father
would not have to step down as Speaker were she to run for governor….
“He wouldn’t have to (quit
as Speaker). He wouldn’t have to step down.”
This much ballyhooed public disdain for Mike Madigan may not
be as intense as the press would have you believe…either that or the voters are
incapable of registering that disdain in the voting booth. Note that Mr. Madigan, despite a well (okay,
maybe decently) funded Republican “Fire Mike Madigan” campaign for the Illinois
House last year, achieved a supermajority in the aforementioned chamber while
Mr. Madigan’s, er, colleague, Senate President John Cullerton, achieved a
supermajority in his chamber. To give
you an idea of how intense the support was for Messrs. Madigan and Cullerton, in
2012 DuPage County
Admittedly, a race in which a person named Madigan is
running for the highly visible office of governor provides an easier method of
registering one’s disgust than a little followed House or Senate race, but one
would hope that the typical voter would know that when s/he is casting a ballot
for a Democratic state representative or senator, s/he is voting for Mike
Madigan. But perhaps that may be my
starry-eyed optimism regarding the high, er, information level of the typical
voter getting the better of me.
So it wasn’t Mike Madigan’s remaining on as Speaker, which
didn’t seem to matter a few weeks ago and, at its core, wasn’t hurting Lisa
nearly as much as it has helped, and would continue to help her, that dissuaded
Ms. Madigan from running. Incidentally,
Mr. Madigan’s remaining as Speaker, which might look somewhat selfish from a
distance, was absolutely the right thing to do. As I wrote on 6/19/13
Mike Madigan, being a
good dad, might resign from the Speakership, or even the House, if Lisa becomes
governor, and promise to do so during the campaign. In the opinion of yours truly, however, he
would be crazy to do so. For Mike
Madigan, the Speaker’s office is a permanent, lifetime job. The governor’s office, on the other hand,
holds no such employment security. If
Ms. Madigan does run and win, and both are still highly likely, she might serve
for eight years; Even if she manages to match Jim Thompson’s 14 year tenure,
that would leave her in power only half the time her father has been
Speaker.
The governor’s office is temporary; the Speakership, at
least for Mike Madigan, is forever, or as forever as anything can be in this
earth. Thus, trading the Speaker’s post
for a go-around in the governor’s job would be a bad trade for the Madigan
family. Mike Madigan is not invincible
(as I get the feeling may become more apparent in the near future, but I
digress within a digression), but he rarely makes a bad trade. But I digress.
So what did dissuade Ms. Madigan from running? I don’t know, of course, because I know no
one even remotely close to the Madigans and, even if I did and learned
something, I would not disclose what I was told; that’s not how I operate. But I can come up with a good reason and a
better reason for Lisa Madigan to remain Attorney General.
The good reason is Bill Daley’s wise and either gutsy or
artful political move in entering the race and thus making Lisa’s path to a
promotion for more problematical. Lisa
wanted a coronation, not an election.
Bill Daley made it a fight.
The better reason is not quite as political but very
simple: Would you want to be governor of Illinois
Still, though, yours truly suspects that Lisa Madigan has
hurt herself politically by not taking the governor’s job. After having repeatedly put her toe in the
water for higher office and declining to take the leap every time, she is
starting to acquire something of a boy who cried wolf quality about her. Further, I’ve been watching politics long
enough to realize that stars tend to burn out quickly and that those whose
stars are currently ablaze would do well to strike while the proverbial iron is
hot. Yes, everyone loves Lisa now, but
there is always a new kid in town and politics quickly becomes a game of “What
ya done for me lately?” (How’s that for
stringing together a series of expressions that have been overused to the point
of banality?) There is a good chance
that even Lisa Madigan may have had her chance…and blew it.
See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of
Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge,
A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on
how things work in Chicago and Illinois politics.
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