LISA MADIGAN IS NOT IN THE RACE, BUT THIS POST IS FAR FROM MOOT.

AS I WAS WRITING THIS, I GOT THE NEWS THAT LISA MADIGAN WILL NOT RUN FOR GOVERNOR, WHICH WOULD HAVE BEEN A SHOCK A MONTH AGO BUT ISN’T NOW.  WHILE SOME MIGHT ARGUE THAT HER ANNOUNCEMENT RENDERS THIS POST MOOT, IT MAY, INSTEAD, RENDER THE POST EVEN MORE INSIGHTFUL, SO READ THIS POST!

NOW WE HAVE A DALEY/QUINN ONE-ON-ONE AND ONE MIGHT REASONABLY SUSPECT THAT JOHN KASS, AND OTHERS, WERE RIGHT IN EARLY JUNE WHEN HE/THEY SPECULATED THAT DALEY SOMEHOW KNEW THAT LISA WAS NOT RUNNING.  WE WILL NEVER KNOW, HOWEVER, AND, AFTER ALL, SOMETIMES A CIGAR IS JUST A CIGAR.

WHY DID LISA DROP OUT, OR NOT DROP IN?  AGAIN, WE DON’T KNOW, BUT I SUSPECT THE “DADDY MADE ME (NOT) DO IT” THEORY, WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE SPECULATION, ISN’T RIGHT; READ THIS POST.

7/15/13

It’s amazing how quickly the conventional wisdom changes.   A month, or even a few weeks, ago, it was understood that Attorney Lisa Madigan was going to run for governor this year.   Now the conventional wisdom seems to be that she won’t run.   Why the change?   A number of plausible reasons have been advanced:   Bill Daley wouldn’t run unless he somehow knew that Lisa Madigan was not going to run (See my 6/6/13 post, “GOVERNOR BILLDALEY…SENATOR BILL DALEY.   THERE JUSTWASN’T THE TIME…”), Mike Madigan’s near absolute power in the state would dissuade voters from backing his daughter (See my 6/19/13 post MIKE AND LISA MADIGAN:   WHAT’S A DAD TO DO?), or that Mr. Madigan’s problems at Metra (See today’s post, WE ARE SHOCKED…SHOCKED!...TO LEARN OF POLITICAL INFLUENCE AT METRA) will make it impossible for his daughter to win.

Unlike much of the punditocracy in this state, I have no idea whether Lisa Madigan will run for governor.  If I had to bet, I would say that, yes, she’s in; she’s raised a lot of money, has made a lot of noises about running, and would look indecisive, at best, if she were to once again silence the sirens of higher office.   But I don’t know Lisa Madigan, Mike Madigan, or anybody remotely close to either of the two.   And even if I did, and they were comfortable enough to share such things with me, I would not repeat things told me in anything remotely resembling confidence; it’s who I am and the way I operate.  So my guess is maybe as good as yours regarding Ms. Madigan’s future.   But a few points are worth making.

First, the very recent revelations about Mr. Madigan’s trying to muscle Metra will have no impact on Lisa Madigan’s decision to run or, if that decision is yes, her chances at becoming our next governor.  Perhaps I am giving the voters of this state far too much credit; re-read my 6/19/13 piece in which I asked/said

 …poll participants had to be reminded that Lisa Madigan’s dad is Mike Madigan?   And these people get to vote?   Remember this the next time someone pontificates on the wonders of democracy,

but one has to assume that most voters know that Mike Madigan is Lisa Madigan’s dad and that most voters are not at all shocked (or even jarred from their figurative sleep) by news that Mr. Madigan is somehow connected to corrupt activities at Metra…or at least I hope, for the future of the state and the Republic, that we can make such an assumption.  In other words, if people were going to vote for Lisa Madigan because they have bought into the mythology surrounding her and/or they make their voting decisions based on 30 second commercials, Mr. Madigan’s machinations at Metra will make minimal, at most, difference.  There is simply nothing new here that would influence her decision or the voters’ opinions regarding her.

Second, the notion that Lisa Madigan and Deb Mell (See my 7/6/13 piece, FAREWELL, DICK MELL…SORTOF) have “daddy problems,” as the press puts it, is preposterous.  Where would either of these two young women be if it weren’t for their fathers?   Yes, they are both talented and would be doing something productive and perhaps lucrative, but Attorney General and Alderman in Waiting?   There are plenty of bright young women and men out there who would be at least as good at either job as either of these two, but never got the chance because their dads weren’t Mike Madigan and Dick Mell.  So to say that either gentleman is somehow a problem for his daughter is incredibly naïve, myopic, and short-sighted.  Again, see my 6/19/13 piece in which I said

“…let’s leave aside for a moment the near fact that if Lisa Madigan were not Mike Madigan’s daughter, she would not have served in the Illinois House and Senate, never been considered for Attorney General, and certainly not now be the governor in waiting.  Let’s instead buy blindly into the silly supposition that Ms. Madigan’s being Mr. Madigan’s daughter actually hurts her.”

See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on how things work in Chicago and Illinois politics.