“GOVERNOR BILL DALEY…SENATOR BILL DALEY. THERE JUST WASN’T THE TIME…”

6/6/13

In the last few days, both Chicago Tribune columnist John Kass and Chicago Sun-Times columnist Michael Sneed have indicated that Bill Daley will run for governor of Illinois in 2014.   Ms. Sneed indicated that her information came from “sources;” Mr. Kass actually talked to Bill Daley on the phone, who said

“After what happened in Springfield last week (See my several posts on this issue, most recently yesterday’s PAT QUINN, PENSIONS, AND THE UPCOMING ILLINOIS GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARY:  WHAT WOULD JIMMY STEWART DO? and the posts to which it will direct you.), I am considering (a gubernatorial run) even more strongly than before.  The inaction down there, the chaos, they’re thinking politics, but they’re not thinking about the state or the taxpayers.”

I have no sources on Mr. Daley’s aspirations, and Mr. Daley certainly doesn’t talk to me.   But I do have some thoughts on the recent talk about Bill Daley eschewing his Hamlet impersonation and getting off the proverbial pot.

Bill Daley, despite a long and distinguished political career (inter alia Commerce Secretary, Presidential chief of staff,) has never run for public office, having decided against races for both governor and U.S. senator in the past despite expectations that he would run due and entreaties to do so from people with real power.  

Yours truly has ascribed this tendency of Mr. Daley to tease potential supporters with talk of running only to leave them frustrated to a proud Daley family tradition, to wit, Daleys don’t like to run in elections that are not mere technicalities.   With a relatively, to the number of races they Daleys have run, few exceptions (Dick Daley’s failed run for sheriff in 1946 (Had he won that race, we might not remember his name today, but that is another story.), Dick Daley’s tough but successful first run in the Democratic primary for mayor in 1955, Rich Daley’s successful but difficult run for state’s attorney in 1980, and Rich Daley’s ill-fated first run for Mayor in 1983.), Daleys have only run for office when the outcome is a foregone conclusion.   So Bill Daley’s having come so close to running on several occasions but never pulling the trigger was merely following suit.

So why would Bill Daley run now when not only is the outcome not certain but when he is, indeed, a very long shot?   The last poll I saw, and admittedly it was a long time ago, showed him trailing far behind Governor Quinn (no relation) who in turn was far behind Attorney General Lisa Madigan.  Aside from polls, it’s difficult to see how Daley could possibly win against the only woman in the race or against the incumbent, especially given what is fast becoming perceived as the stench of his brother’s last term or so as Mayor. 

Could it be, as Mr. Kass indicated yesterday, that Mr. Daley has somehow determined that Lisa Madigan has decided not to run?   While it’s plausible that Ms. Madigan will not run, it would surprise the heck out of me after all the money she’s raised and all the noise that has been made about her looming candidacy.  She, too, has declined runs for both governor and U.S. senator before; if she opts out now after coming so close, she’ll look like, well, Bill “Hamlet” Daley.  And the Danish vote is not a big one in this state.  Stranger things have happened in this state, though.

The narrative that Mr. Daley seems to be advancing is that he doesn’t care if Ms. Madigan is runs and/or that he is tired of waiting for her to make what many of us have considered only a formal declaration of her intent to run.  He is so concerned about the fiscal state of our state, and so convinced that he is capable of addressing our money problems, that he is going ahead with a race.  He doesn’t care that many of us think that such a campaign, while perhaps not quixotic, looks nearly impossible with Ms. Madigan in it and far from easy even without her; Mr. Quinn is, after all, the incumbent, and again see yesterday’s post on his strategy.

Yours truly finds it hard to believe that Mr. Daley is so concerned about our state that he would throw political considerations out the window and charge ahead despite the long odds against him defeating both Mr. Quinn and Ms. Madigan in the Democratic primary.  That’s why I still think he will only run if he somehow knows Lisa Madigan will stay out of the race, which I can’t see happening.  

If I’m wrong, though, and Mr. Daley runs despite the near impossibility of winning in a three way race, I would give him more credit than I already do.  Though we’ve always had our differences (politically and ideologically, not personally; I don’t know Mr. Daley and have never met Mr. Daley, which is unfortunate for both of us, but I digress), I’ve always respected Bill Daley.  He is smart, hardworking, imbued by his parents with some great values, and knows the art of politics which is, after all, bringing people together to get things done.   He’s consequently been quite effective in whatever he has attempted.  He is the kind of guy we should want in public office. 

One more thing.  As I prepared this post, and as write it, a crazy thought occurred to me:   Could Bill Daley, realizing that his chances are nearly nil in a primary involving Pat Quinn and Lisa Madigan, and not having gotten wind of some Lisa Madigan plan to eschew a run for governor, be planning an independent run for governor?   Yes, a Daley running as an independent is a long shot….  But don’t dismiss it yet. Technically, Rich Daley ran as an independent for mayor in 1999, 2003, and 2007, admittedly only because, starting in 1999. the law dictated that the mayoral race be non-partisan.  Further, other Democratic stalwarts have abandoned the party to run for mayor as independents (Tom Hynes in 1987 (See my 5/17/13 piece, DEPAUL AND THE McARENA:  WHERE’S THE RETURN ON DEPAUL’S INVESTMENT IN CLOUT?)) and even Republicans (e.g., Ed Vrdolyak in 1989).   If memory serves yours truly correctly, Mr. Vrdolyak even served briefly as Cook County Republican Chairman. 

Admittedly, the names “Hynes” and “Vrdolyak” are not as synonymous with “Democrat” as is “Daley.”  But wouldn’t running as an independent make sense for a guy, like Bill Daley, who is claiming to run because he is disgusted by the way the Democrats have run the state?    And, yes, I had the same thought you might be having now…might such a rationale for running lead Bill Daley to run as a Republican?   Let’s not get crazy, or any crazier, here!

There is no doubt, though, that things will continue to be interesting in Illinois politics, all the more reason to see my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on how things work in Chicago and Illinois politics.