Showing posts with label General Motors. Show all posts
Showing posts with label General Motors. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

“LOOK AT THAT CADILLAC!”: GM TRIES A GEOGRAPHICAL CURE AT CADDY

9/24/14

General Motors announced yesterday that Cadillac will move its headquarters to New York, part of a larger move to establish Caddy as a separate business unit.   Part of the rationale for abandoning the city whose founder gave Cadillac its name is, as new Caddy boss Johan de Nysschen, put it

“There is no city in the world where the inhabitants are more immersed in a premium lifestyle than New York.”

Mr. de Nysschen thus outlines about as good a reason as any not to live in New York, but I digress.

Will this move to New York work?  Caddy has to do something.  Year to date through the end of August, its sales were down 5% in a strong car market.   Making the story even worse, Caddy’s SUVs, the SRX and especially the behemoth Escalade, are selling quite well.  Sales of Cadillac cars, however, were down 15% as of 8/31/14.  Dealer lots are teeming with CTSs and ATSs that simply won’t sell.

So is moving to New York going to change Caddy’s fortunes?   Employing a little uncommon common sense, one suspects not.  But the move to the Big Apple is at least consonant with Caddy’s pricing strategy; i.e., Caddy vehicles definitely are listed at New York prices.  Therein, one suspects, lies the problem; Cadillacs are simply too expensive.  

The ATS starts in the low $30s, which yours truly thinks is a lot of money but apparently no one else does.  But try finding an ATS at that price point; walk around a dealer lot and you will notice that most of the stickers on this cramped car sport a $40 handle, and many are priced in the high $40s.  The CTS starts in the mid $40s, which gives yours truly apoplexy, and can easily reach the high $50s and low $60s.

C’mon!   These aren’t Mercedes or BMWs; they are Cadillacs, for Pete’s sake.  Yes, the current Caddy products are, in many aspects, as good as the European fare to which they aspire.  The handling of the ATS, which is at least as good, in many knowledgeable people’s opinions, as that of the BMW 3 Series comes immediately to mind.  And it is possible to argue with a straight face that the Cadillac cars are as good as or better in totality than their German competitors.  But that misses the point.

People who spend these brobdingnagian amounts on cars are buying, as much as they will never admit it, an image, not a car.  And while Caddy may be as good as BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, Infiniti, or what have you, it doesn’t have the image of those “luxury”(whatever that means) marques.  And therefore Caddy can’t charge BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, and Infiniti prices; those who buy such cars will not stand for it.   And old time Cadillac buyers are not used to paying such prices.  But Caddy doesn’t seem to care much for the traditional Cadillac buyer; in fact, Caddy seems to treat its traditional buyers like something it would like to scrape off the bottom of its shoe.  That also is a big part of the problem.  Older, largely self-made, people have money and are willing to spend it on expensive products that deliver value.  Caddy used to know that, but now seems to be tossing such customers over the side while fixating on capturing the attention of the insecure types who fancy themselves the nouveau riche and seek to prove it, perhaps to themselves, by the accumulation of showy and glittery yet ultimately useless gimcracks and trinkets.

So Caddy can tell its hometown to screw itself.  But as long as it charges prices commensurate with those that prevail in its new HQ town, and tells its traditional buyer base to also do the aforementioned anatomically impossible, it will have problems that far transcend geography.



Monday, April 28, 2014

QUINN ON PRECKWINKLE VS. EMANUEL, TRIPLE J, JEB BUSH, AND THE PENSION BILL

4/10/14

I took a hiatus from writing last week; I was just too busy to write and was harboring a few doubts about the whole point of the exercise.  But I was at a party last Saturday night and talked to several people whom I hadn’t seen in a while who told me how much they enjoyed my posts and asked me to assure them that I wouldn’t quit.  No coincidences, as they say, but I digress. 

At any rate, I found some time this week to write a few posts.  Almost all my musings this week were on Chicago politics; I did that because it seems like my writing on the politics of my hometown for Rant Lifestyle, a site about which I still have my misgivings, seems to sell my books…if an uptick in sales since writing for Rant is any evidence.

THE 2015 CHICAGO MAYOR’S RACE:  TONI, TONI, PLEASE BACK DOWN, YOU’LL NEVER BEAT RAHM IN THIS TOWN
Some of Toni Preckwinkle’s fans are delusional, but I hope she isn’t.  And I think I came up with a new expression for the political situation in Chicago:  Pax Rahmana.  Pretty good, eh?

TAKE IT TO THE BANK:  CHICAGO MAYOR RAHM EMANUEL WILL GET HIS TAX INCREASE…AND MAYBE HIS CASINO
Those who say that this whole pension bill is a stalking horse for a casino may be partially right, but property taxes are going up in Chicago anyway.

JEB BUSH IN 2016:   MOTHER KNOWS BEST
Yes, I know the Wall Street Journal editorial page has gone into the tank for this guy, but the GOP can’t be that suicidal.  Or can it?

JESSE JACKSON JR. GOES TO A NICER JAIL:  “THAT’S (NOT) THE SOUND OF THE MEN WORKING ON THE…CHAIN GANG…”
Once the glare of publicity faded, Triple J got to go to the federal housing he wanted all along.   So it goes.  But couldn’t the Jackson family have come up with a story that wasn’t quite so insulting to our intelligence?

Have a great weekend, everybody.   Blessed Holy Week and Passover.

See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on how things work in Chicago and Illinois politics. 




QUINN ON THE GOVERNOR’S RACE, GIANT PUPPETS, PUTIN, GM, AND HIS NAMESAKE’S HOUSING PLAN

4/24/14

The busyness, if you will, of my schedule combined with the events of the Triduum, ruled out sending you one of these heads-up announcements last week.   But I did manage to find the time to write a few things since we last communicated.  Most were on local and state politics for the simple reason that writing on these topics sells books.  But I did touch on world politics and the car business.

WHO DOES CHICAGO MAYOR RAHM EMANUEL WANT TO BE ILLINOIS GOVERNOR?
I’m not one to complain about editing, but the editor of this piece dropped the “Who” at the beginning of the title, changing its meaning entirely.   Be that as it may, the punch line is that Mr. Emanuel may be telling the truth in this instance, and it has little, but not nothing, to do with Mr. Rauner’s ill-advised robocalls.

RAHM AND THE GIANT PUPPETS
Yet another attempt by our yuppie mayor to make us a “world class” city.  Such grotesqueries make one pine for the days of the old Stock Yards, the aroma of which my father would alternately call “fresh air” or the “smell of money.”

THE GENEVA AGREEMENT ON UKRAINE:  PUTIN HORNSWOGGLES THE WEST…AGAIN
I often wonder what Mr. Putin thinks, or thought, after meeting with the likes of Barack Obama and George Bush.  It had to be something along the lines of “This guy is the leader of the free world?  Maybe freedom isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.”

“PRODUCT INTEGRITY ORGANIZATION”?  NEW GM INDEED!
There is nothing new under the sun…especially in Detroit, it seems.

ILLINOIS GOVERNOR PAT QUINN’S HOUSING PROPOSAL:  PINING FOR ’08 AND ‘09
Shows what a short memory and an utter lack of understanding of economics can do.

Have a great rest of the week and weekend, everybody.


See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on how things work in Chicago and Illinois politics. 




Tuesday, December 10, 2013

MARY BARRA AS GM CEO: “YOU’LL BE SWELL! YOU’LL BE GREAT! GONNA HAVE THE WHOLE WORLD ON THE PLATE!”

12/10/13

General Motors (“GM”) announced this morning that Mary Barra, who is currently head of global product development at the General, will succeed Dan Akerson as CEO.

This is terrific news, but not for the reason with which the media have already started to bombard us.   It never ceases to amaze me how those who pride themselves as ardent foes of sexism focus so intently and myopically people’s genders, just as those who pride themselves as ardent foes of racism focus so intently and myopically on people’s races.  But I digress.  Mary Barra is not a great CEO choice because she is a woman; she is a great CEO choice for two primary reasons. 



First, Ms. Barra is GM through and through.  She has worked at the General for 31 years, starting when she was working on her degree in electrical engineering.   Her father worked at Pontiac for 39 years.  Note that the other logical candidate for CEO, GM North America President Mark Reuss, who too would have been an outstanding choice, had a dad who worked at GM.   But while Mr. Reuss’s dad was president of GM, Ms. Barra’s dad was a die maker at Pontiac.  I like that.

Second, Ms. Barra is what we would call a car guy if she were a guy, and I refuse to call her a “car gal,” which I think is more than a tad sexist.  She has been immersed in cars since childhood and has done a great job in product development.   She also has a degree in electrical engineering, which means she knows something beyond the jargon spewing and buck passing that often passes for “management” these days.  

While Dan Akerson did a great job at GM, Alan Mulally has done an even better job at Ford, and both were right for their times, I still suffer from the quaint notion that car companies should be run by car people.  Does leadership by car guys get car companies into trouble on occasion?   Sure, but not always.  And product means something, a great deal, really, especially in the car business.  Without car people in charge, the industry loses something.   But this feeling may arise from my love for the industry and its products, and perhaps a good manager, a real manager, not a malarkey master, can run any type of firm.    What car guy could adequately replace Alan Mulally, should he leave for Microsoft, for instance?

So I, for one, am delighted that Mary Barra will soon be at the helm of General Motors.  Further, I share the sentiment being widely expressed today that Dan Akerson hasn’t received the credit he deserves for his large part in GM’s turnaround.   This lack of recognition has been described as “sad” in the financial media, but “sad” is somehow not the right word.   I am sure that the millions with which Mr. Akerson will leave the General, and the acclaim he will receive over the next few months, will surely serve as sufficient succor.

What is sad, in the proper meaning of the word, is a comment by Mr. Akerson’s predecessor at GM, Ed Whitacre, in the September, 2013 edition of Car & Driver…

“I was chairman at AT&T, then at GM, and I was awful (sic) busy.  I didn’t spend enough time with my kids.  I’m trying to change that now, at least with my grandkids.”

Not getting the acclaim that one deserves for feats in the corporate world is regrettable or unfortunate.   Not being able to spend “enough time” with one’s kids due to the pursuit of those accolades, and desperately trying to change with the next generation what can’t be changed, is genuinely sad.   Thank God for the times He answers your requests with “No.”   But I digress.


Friday, June 7, 2013

“I BET WHEN YOU BUY THIS CAR YOU GET FREE MAINTENANCE…LOOKS GOOD ON YOU, THOUGH”

6/7/13

GM will now offer two years or 24,000 miles of free maintenance on its Chevys, Buicks, and GMCs.  Caddy already offers four years or (I think) 50,000 miles of free maintenance.

This sounds like a great offer until one thinks about it for more than a few seconds.  How much maintenance does a car require in its first two years?   A few oil changes and tire rotations, at a total cost of at the very most a couple hundred bucks at retail.   And it’s amazing how much less maintenance a car requires when the company is paying for it than it does when the customer is paying for it.



GM suffers from a mediocre product line.  Other than Cadillac, which has some terrific products and is selling cars like crazy of late (in May, Caddy sales were up 40% from May, 2012), albeit with some pretty heavy incentives on its top selling CTS, the whole GM product line is something of a yawner.   Consequently, overall sales are stagnating and GM has to do something.   Maybe free maintenance will help sell some cars, as it has at Toyota, which has a similar bland product line but has the type of consumer loyalty on which GM cannot count.   Further, unlike throwing money on the hood, free maintenance might induce consumers to better maintain their cars, though, as I indicated in the last paragraph, “required” maintenance seems to fall off when such maintenance is on the company.

But even if the free maintenance gimmick does help sell cars, it is very much a gimmick.  that reflects a rather cynical view of the savvy of the U.S. car shopper.  And one thing that Americans still do better than anybody else is shop.

Thursday, May 23, 2013

THE CAR SALES BUBBLE: “JUST TELL ME WHAT YOU WANT AND THEN SIGN THAT LINE AND I’LL HAVE IT BROUGHT DOWN TO YOU IN A HOUR’S TIME”

5/23/13

I’ve said it before (CAR LOANS:   TAKE MY MONEY…PLEASE!,  5/6/13 and  IMPORTED FROM DETROIT:   MARCHIONNE BETTER BE AS FAST AS A CHRYSLER 300 SRT8, 4/25/13), this car market scares me, even as we approach a 15 mm unit year for U.S. light vehicle sales.

What I have long referred to as Ben Bernanke’s War on the Elderly, but what most people call QE III or “unconventional” monetary loosening, has created plenty of bubbles, and not all of those bubbles are in financial assets like treasuries, corporate bonds, and dividend paying stocks.   One of the most dangerous, though not quite as salient, bubbles is car sales; nothing moves cars like cheap financing.   With the economy still just dragging along, and the prices of cars continuing to go up, especially as incentives are being reduced, affordability is only being sustained, and enhanced, through cheap credit.  It is this artificial affordability that is driving car sales.  All this talk of pent-up demand has some justification; the fleet is indeed old.   But, as I said in my aforementioned 4/25/13 post, just about all of that pent-up demand would stay pent-up if money weren’t so cheap; cars last, and run like new, a long, long time nowadays; yours truly knows this from personal experience.  And while all the latest geegaws are nifty, impressive, and nearly awe-inspiring (See my already seminal 5/20/13 piece, I TEST DROVE A KIA TODAY…), people can, and would, do without them if cheap money didn’t make them even more tantalizing.



With the “domestic” car companies ramping up production by canceling the longstanding Detroit tradition of summer shut-downs, it’s hard to be sanguine about the car business.  At some point, credit has to get more expensive and/or less available.  Even without Fed action, long rates are up; the ten year treasury is up 35 basis points (“bps”) since the end of last month and the five year, a more relevant benchmark for car loans, is up 22 bps.  Without all this cheap credit floating around, what look like tight inventories might suddenly become fulsome as people decide that what was a necessity at one monthly payment is a luxury at an even slightly higher payment.

This post concerns the state of an industry more than the relative cheapness or richness of the “domestic” car company stocks; I don’t follow the car company stocks like I used to, though I am considering starting to do so again quickly.   That having been said, most of the experts are telling us that Ford (F) and General Motors (GM), despite their rather stunning increases of the last few months, are still very cheap with forward price/earnings ratios (“P/E”s) of about 10 times while prospects in the black hole of Europe improve, Chinese sales remain strong, and there is so much upside in the United States.   While 10 times forward earnings certainly look attractive, especially relative to an S&P 500 P/E roughly 50% higher, I might want to challenge at least two, and probably all, of the assumptions behind the earnings projections that form the denominator of that P/E.  

As long as Ben Bernanke’s punch bowl, composed largely of the sweat and the blood of those (especially the elderly) who’ve been prudent, or, in the Bernanke bizarro world, foolish, enough to save, remains full, car sales in the United States should remain strong, or at least respectable.   But as soon as Obsequious Ben takes away the punch bowl, or the markets get wise to him, car sales have nowhere to go but down.

While I’ll leave, for now, ruminations on the attractiveness of GM and F to the self-proclaimed experts, I’m not enthusiastic about investing in an industry that is flying high on the economic and financial equivalent of crack cocaine.  You can see how this argument could easily be extended to the entire stock market, but, again, calling markets is, as I have said so many times in the past, nearly impossible.  

GM                  $32.84
F                      $14.86
S&P 500:         1,652
Dow:                15,308