LISA MADIGAN WON’T RUN FOR GOVERNOR: WOULD YOU WANT THE JOB?

7/16/13

As I said yesterday (LISA MADIGAN IS NOT IN THE RACE,BUT THIS POST IS FAR FROM MOOT, 7/15/13), the Mike Madigan/Metra scandal had little, if anything, to do with Lisa Madigan’s decision not to run for governor.   What is new about Mike Madigan sinking his tentacles into another state agency?  As I put it yesterday

In other words, if people were going to vote for Lisa Madigan because they have bought into the mythology surrounding her and/or they make their voting decisions based on 30 second commercials, Mr. Madigan’s machinations at Metra will make minimal, at most, difference.   There is simply nothing new here that would influence her decision or the voters’ opinions regarding her.

So why did Ms. Madigan decide not to run for governor?   Yours truly can come up with a number of reasons that don’t conform to the groupthink that permeates the Chicago media.

First, this was going to be a very tough race for Lisa Madigan.   Any genuine three way race, and especially any three way primary, involving any incumbent would be tough for any challenger.  One’s hat has to be off to Bill Daley in this regard who, perhaps tired of waiting for Lisa’s Hamlet act to conclude, entered the race, making life very difficult for Lisa Madigan.   Do you think for a minute that if Bill Daley were not in the race, Lisa Madigan would have stayed out? 

Some will argue that Mr. Daley was not necessarily displaying any courage by getting in the race, that he somehow knew that Lisa would not get in and/or cut a deal to keep her out.  If this is the case, it is testimony to Mr. Daley’s craftiness, ability to cut deals, and covering all the bases, not at all undesirable qualities in a governor of any state, but especially of this state.  On the other hand, if Mr. Daley genuinely had no idea what Ms. Madigan was going to do and entered the race anyway, he showed some real courage and sense of mission.   As I wrote on 6/6 (“GOVERNOR BILLDALEY…SENATOR BILL DALEY.   THERE JUSTWASN’T THE TIME…”)

Yours truly finds it hard to believe that Mr. Daley is so concerned about our state that he would throw political considerations out the window and charge ahead despite the long odds against him defeating both Mr. Quinn and Ms. Madigan in the Democratic primary.  That’s why I still think he will only run if he somehow knows Lisa Madigan will stay out of the race, which I can’t see happening.  

If I’m wrong, though, and Mr. Daley runs despite the near impossibility of winning in a three way race, I would give him more credit than I already do.  Though we’ve always had our differences (politically and ideologically, not personally; I don’t know Mr. Daley and have never met Mr. Daley, which is unfortunate for both of us, but I digress), I’ve always respected Bill Daley.  He is smart, hardworking, imbued by his parents with some great values, and knows the art of politics which is, after all, bringing people together to get things done.   He’s consequently been quite effective in whatever he has attempted.  He is the kind of guy we should want in public office. 

Either way, Bill Daley comes out of this particular episode looking smart and/or courageous.

Still, though, Lisa Madigan, had she entered the race, would have been the front-runner, given her $5 million campaign fund, her immense largely bi-partisan popularity, and her being the only woman in the three way race.   On the other hand, Lisa Madigan, after an initial tough race for Attorney General in 2002, has won every contest for reelection in a cakewalk.   She has therefore developed a very Daleyesque aversion (until recently, apparently) to running in elections that aren’t mere technicalities.  See my 6/6/13 post, “GOVERNOR BILL DALEY…SENATOR BILLDALEY.   THERE JUSTWASN’T THE TIME…”  This one would have been more than an exercise in going through the motions.

There is something to the argument that Lisa dropped out because of perceptions of her father, but not much.   Let’s translate her statement of yesterday…

"Ultimately, however, there has always been another consideration that impacts my decision. I feel strongly that the state would not be well served by having a governor and speaker of the House from the same family and have never planned to run for governor if that would be the case. With Speaker Madigan planning to continue in office, I will not run for governor."

Once we eliminate the lies that come as naturally as any politician as swimming comes to any fish, what Ms. Madigan really was saying

I feel strongly that MY RACE FOR GOVERNOR WOULD BE MARGINALLY MORE DIFFICULT IF MY FATHER REMAINED SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE; THEREFORE,. with Speaker Madigan planning to continue in office, I will not run for governor."

As I said yesterday, and back on 6/19/13 (MIKE ANDLISA MADIGAN:   WHAT’S A DAD TO DO?), this talk of Mike Madigan hurting his daughter’s chances at becoming governor is preposterous once one looks beyond one branch on one tree.  Simply put, where would Lisa Madigan be if her father were not Mike Madigan?  As a friend of mine said yesterday, she might be working in the Attorney General’s office, but she wouldn’t be Attorney General.  To which I would add that she never would have been a state senator and would be largely unknown outside her circle of friends, let alone be considered a strong candidate for governor.  Talented and smart?  Yes.   But lots of people are at least equally talented and smart and would be at least as good in the offices she has held, holds, or aspires to hold…but never got the chance because their fathers were not Mike Madigan.

Further, just a few weeks ago, Lisa Madigan said her father would not have to step down as Speaker were she to run for governor….

“He wouldn’t have to (quit as Speaker).  He wouldn’t have to step down.”

This much ballyhooed public disdain for Mike Madigan may not be as intense as the press would have you believe…either that or the voters are incapable of registering that disdain in the voting booth.   Note that Mr. Madigan, despite a well (okay, maybe decently) funded Republican “Fire Mike Madigan” campaign for the Illinois House last year, achieved a supermajority in the aforementioned chamber while Mr. Madigan’s, er, colleague, Senate President John Cullerton, achieved a supermajority in his chamber.   To give you an idea of how intense the support was for Messrs. Madigan and Cullerton, in 2012 DuPage County elected its first Democratic state senator in, I think, history.   How much hating of Mr. Cullerton and the Democratic Party he controls is going on here?

Admittedly, a race in which a person named Madigan is running for the highly visible office of governor provides an easier method of registering one’s disgust than a little followed House or Senate race, but one would hope that the typical voter would know that when s/he is casting a ballot for a Democratic state representative or senator, s/he is voting for Mike Madigan.  But perhaps that may be my starry-eyed optimism regarding the high, er, information level of the typical voter getting the better of me.

So it wasn’t Mike Madigan’s remaining on as Speaker, which didn’t seem to matter a few weeks ago and, at its core, wasn’t hurting Lisa nearly as much as it has helped, and would continue to help her, that dissuaded Ms. Madigan from running.   Incidentally, Mr. Madigan’s remaining as Speaker, which might look somewhat selfish from a distance, was absolutely the right thing to do.   As I wrote on 6/19/13

Mike Madigan, being a good dad, might resign from the Speakership, or even the House, if Lisa becomes governor, and promise to do so during the campaign.   In the opinion of yours truly, however, he would be crazy to do so.   For Mike Madigan, the Speaker’s office is a permanent, lifetime job.   The governor’s office, on the other hand, holds no such employment security.   If Ms. Madigan does run and win, and both are still highly likely, she might serve for eight years; Even if she manages to match Jim Thompson’s 14 year tenure, that would leave her in power only half the time her father has been Speaker. 

The governor’s office is temporary; the Speakership, at least for Mike Madigan, is forever, or as forever as anything can be in this earth.  Thus, trading the Speaker’s post for a go-around in the governor’s job would be a bad trade for the Madigan family.  Mike Madigan is not invincible (as I get the feeling may become more apparent in the near future, but I digress within a digression), but he rarely makes a bad trade.   But I digress.

So what did dissuade Ms. Madigan from running?  I don’t know, of course, because I know no one even remotely close to the Madigans and, even if I did and learned something, I would not disclose what I was told; that’s not how I operate.   But I can come up with a good reason and a better reason for Lisa Madigan to remain Attorney General.

The good reason is Bill Daley’s wise and either gutsy or artful political move in entering the race and thus making Lisa’s path to a promotion for more problematical.  Lisa wanted a coronation, not an election.  Bill Daley made it a fight.

The better reason is not quite as political but very simple:   Would you want to be governor of Illinois right now?   This state is in a hell of a mess, with bankruptcy looming over the fast approaching horizon.  In all likelihood, nothing will be solved before the next governor takes office.  One does not blame an ambitious pol like Ms. Madigan for not wanting to tie her dinghy to such a sinking ship.  It would be much easier, and conducive to obtaining that big job that every politician ultimately wants, to become a U.S. Senator, and that job may become available, albeit not necessarily for the asking, in 2016.

Still, though, yours truly suspects that Lisa Madigan has hurt herself politically by not taking the governor’s job.  After having repeatedly put her toe in the water for higher office and declining to take the leap every time, she is starting to acquire something of a boy who cried wolf quality about her.   Further, I’ve been watching politics long enough to realize that stars tend to burn out quickly and that those whose stars are currently ablaze would do well to strike while the proverbial iron is hot.   Yes, everyone loves Lisa now, but there is always a new kid in town and politics quickly becomes a game of “What ya done for me lately?”   (How’s that for stringing together a series of expressions that have been overused to the point of banality?)   There is a good chance that even Lisa Madigan may have had her chance…and blew it.

See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on how things work in Chicago and Illinois politics. 

WHATEVER SHE DOES, SHEILA SIMON OUGHT TO THANK PAT QUINN

2/14/13

Illinois Lieutenant Governor Sheila Simon announced on Wednesday that she would not be Governor Pat Quinn’s running mate when (if?) he seeks reelection in 2014.   This announcement apparently had been planned since December when Ms. Simon and Mr. Quinn (no relation) were trying to figure out a way to make it in such a manner that “nobody would come out looking bad,” and it has led to plenty of speculation about Ms. Simon’s motives and ambitions.

Most observers think Ms. Simon’s motive is to jump off the sinking ship that Mr. Quinn’s chance for reelection appears to be.   Clearly, no ambitious politician wants to be identified with a loser, and, right now, Mr. Quinn (no relation) looks like he will have a tough time getting re-nominated, let alone re-elected.  (I discussed the 2014 gubernatorial race in Illinois in one of my last posts on the now defunct Rant Political, LISA MADIGAN WOULD BE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR ILLINOIS GOVERNOR, BUT WOULD SHE BE A GOOD GOVERNOR?, 1/23/13, which I have reproduced below.)  On the very day that Sheila Simon made her announcement, a poll by the (perhaps irony of ironies) Paul Simon Public Policy Institute showed the following preferences among Democrats for not all that hypothetical candidates for governor:

Attorney General Lisa Madigan                                                              31.9%

Governor Pat Quinn                                                                               22.9%

Former Commerce Secretary, et. al., Bill Daley                                      11.9%

The numbers don’t look good for the Governor, but they look a lot worse for Bill Daley.   Mr. Daley’s numbers surprise yours truly, but I digress.  Politics, though, is a fickle business and Mr. Quinn is, after all, the incumbent, so it’s still too early to completely dismiss Mr. Quinn’s chances.  Therefore, while one can certainly legitimately speculate that Ms. Quinn’s motives amount to the political equivalent of those of the poor souls on the ill-fated Carnival cruise wanting to get off the sailing sewer their ship has become, her motives may be simpler.

The post of Illinois Lieutenant Governor (“LG”) is even less consequential than that of Vice-President of the United States, which John Nance (“Cactus Jack”) Garner, who served in the latter post from 1933 to 1941, equated to a “warm bucket of (spit).” (Incidentally, Mr. Garner didn’t stay “spit.”  When the quote was reported, that word was substituted for another at least equally disgusting human emission because people had class in those days, but, again, I digress.)   In fact, the last Lieutenant Governor who displayed a record of accomplishment in that job was Ms. Simon’s father, who left the post in 1972 to run for governor.  The most telling evidence of the vestigiality of the LG’s office is not, as the media would have it, the resignations from that post in mid-term of Dave O’Neal in 1981 and Bob Kustra (sort of) in 1998.   No, the most telling evidence of the worthlessness of the office is that nobody missed either Mr. O’Neal or Mr. Kustra when he left.

Clearly, Sheila Simon is bored being LG, as would anyone of reasonable intelligence and sound work ethic; there is nothing to do as LG.   So there is plenty of motivation for wanting to leave that job even without taking into consideration Mr. Quinn’s unpromising chances at reelection.

What of Sheila Simon’s ambitions?

Most of the talk seems to revolve around Ms. Simon’s either challenging Judy Baar Topinka for Illinois comptroller or Ms. Simon’s running for Attorney General (“AG”) should Lisa Madigan make a run at Pat Quinn in the primary.   Both are plausible.   And, this being Illinois, one would be remiss if one discounted the possibility of a deal between Mike Madigan and Sheila Simon, something like (purely hypothetically, of course) having Ms. Simon make this announcement, further embarrassing and weakening Mr. Quinn, in return for Mike Madigan’s support in Ms. Simon’s run for AG.  And don’t even try to tell me that Sheila Simon has too much integrity to pull off such a deal.  Do you think even her father, much ballyhooed for his integrity, didn’t get involved in such dealing?   If you do, please catch a flight back to reality from the la-la land you currently inhabit, but I digress.

A more plausible scenario, if Ms. Simon seeks an Illinois constitutional office, might be a run for Secretary of State.  The current Secretary, Jesse White, one of the state’s most popular officeholders who routinely has won reelection by lopsided, even by Illinois standards, margins, is, after all, 78 years old and will be 80, and will have held the office for 16 years, in 2014.   He might want to hang it up and/or may be receptive to a “suggestion” by the likes of Mike Madigan, who runs the Illinois Democratic Party, that retirement might not be such a bad idea.   After all, Jesse White is, if nothing else, a loyal party guy.

There are other possibilities. 

Ms. Simon has said that she wants “a role where (sic) I can have an even greater impact” and “be the best advocate for the state of Illinois.”   What if the words “advocate for Illinois” were more carefully chosen than most people are assuming and indicate a desire to go to Washington to so advocate?

A seat in U.S. House, where her father ended up after losing his gubernatorial bid in 1972, does not seem realistic.  I am quite, but not completely, sure that Ms. Simon lives in the 12^th District, which has a brand new Democratic congressman in Representative Bill Enyart.   It is unlikely that she would challenge a fellow Democrat in a primary.  Her making a run in the 12^th  does remain a possibility, though.  The Simon name is magic in the southern stretches of Illinois, more than potent enough to overcome her, and her father’s, liberalism in a relatively conservative district and perhaps persuade a first term incumbent to step aside.   If I’m wrong and she lives in (or chooses to move to or run in) the 15^th  District, even the Simon name might not be enough for a Democrat to beat Republican John Shimkus in that heavily GOP district.

But how about the Senate?   Though Senator Mark Kirk is recovering and we all hope his recovery continues and he can continue to serve, it’s tough to recover from a massive stroke and fulfill the duties of a U.S. Senator.  (Even getting one’s hindquarters continually smooched and calling it a living is hard if one is sufficiently debilitated by  a stroke.)  His term lasts until 2016, and one assumes that the ambitious Sheila Simon does not want to wait that long to run for her next office.   But if Mr. Kirk’s medical challenges force, or persuade, him to leave office early, the Governor gets to pick his replacement.  That governor will be Pat Quinn until 2014 and, chances are, at least at this juncture, will be Democrat until 2018.   What better job is there than U.S. Senator?   And, in the proud tradition of Illinois politics, Sheila Simon’s following her late father to the Senate would keep it in the family.

Whatever she does, Ms. Simon ought to be grateful to Mr. Quinn.   Before he selected her as his running mate, even though she was his third choice, she was a former member of the city council in Carbondale with few political prospects, a bleak political future, and little going for her but a famous and popular name.   Now she is a serious contender for some jobs that would make far more seasoned pols salivate.   Hopefully, she will treat Mr. Quinn with the gratitude and respect such magnanimity deserves.

See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on how things work in Chicago and Illinois politics.  

PROMISED FORMER POST:

LISA MADIGAN WOULD BE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR ILLINOIS GOVERNOR, BUT WOULD SHE BE A GOOD GOVERNOR?

1/23/13

Chicago Sun-Times columnist and political reporter Lynn Sweet indicated today what many have long suspected:   Attorney General Lisa Madigan is “seriously thinking” about running in the 2014 primary for Illinois Governor against unpopular incumbent Pat Quinn (no relation) and maybe former Commerce Secretary and Presidential Chief of Staff Bill Daley.   (See my 1/16/13 post, BILL DALEY:  POLITICIANS SACRIFICE MORE THAN THE REST OF US COULD EVER IMAGINE.) As usual, Ms. Sweet makes some great points and I would advise anyone interested in the byzantine politics of the Land of Lincoln and its largest city to read her column on page 2 of today’s (i.e., Wednesday, 1/23/13’s) Sun-Times.

Two additional comments, including some historical perspective, on a Lisa Madigan candidacy on which Ms. Sweet did not touch:

--Lisa Madigan would be a formidable candidate for governor, or senator, simply because she gets such fantastic press and hence has garnered accolades, or at least approval, from voters across the political spectrum.   Though Ms. Madigan is at least a reasonably liberal Democrat, even the most rock-ribbed conservatives find little bad to say about her.

One could attribute Ms. Madigan’s popularity to the good job she has done as Aspiring Governor (er, sorry…Attorney General) rather than to the good press that yours truly sees as the source of her sky high approval ratings.  The problem with ascribing her popularity to her skill as AG, though, is that it is difficult to garner ill-will, or to distinguish one’s self one way or the other, in that office.   The Attorney General in the State of Illinois is not a prosecutorial office.  It is primarily, as far as the public sees, a consumer protection office, bringing civil actions against big time polluters, purveyors of shoddy products, or sellers of flim-flam services.  It is hard to anger people when one is ostensibly standing up for the little guy against the evil designs of the darker quarters of corporate America.   Therefore, it would be hard for Lisa Madigan, or for any other Attorney General in this state, to look bad.

Even those people who could get upset with the Attorney General…alleged bad actors in the corporate community…are afraid to speak out vociferously, if at all, against Ms. Madigan because of the power of her father, House Speaker Mike Madigan.  (See, inter alia, my 1/9/13 post, ILLINOIS PENSION PROBLEMS:   SEND THE CHECK TO MY KIDS.)

While it is easy to predict that Lisa Madigan would be a formidable candidate for governor, because of the nature of her current office, it is difficult to determine how good a governor she would be.   That she has appeared to do a good job in an office in which it is virtually impossible to do a bad job is no indication that she would do a good job in an office in which it is virtually impossible to a good job.

--While it is possible to see a Quinn/Daley/Madigan race work to Lisa Madigan’s advantage because she is a woman, it is nearly as easy to see such a three way race working to Governor Quinn’s advantage because he is the incumbent.

However…

While incumbency, even an unpopular incumbency, such as Pat Quinn’s, is formidable, those of us who study, or even just remember, Chicago politics know that incumbency is not insurmountable, even with a divided opposition.   Remember the Democratic mayoral primary in 1983, when unpopular incumbent Jane Byrne was challenged by Cook County State’s Attorney Rich Daley (Bill’s brother) and U.S. Representative Harold Washington.   The results were as follows:

Harold Washington                   37%

Jane Byrne                               33%

Rich Daley                                30%

The dynamics of that race, especially in its racial overtones, were clearly different.   Nonetheless, its results should give pause to those who assume that an incumbent has a big edge, even in a primary, when his or her opposition, is divided.