Everyone who pays attention to these things knows that
treasury yields, broadly defined, are at their highs for the year. The only exception to this, and it’s barely
an exception, is the 30 year yield, now at 3.89%. I thought I saw it at 3.90% on August 19, but
I may have been wrong and, in any case, who cares about a basis point?
Perhaps I haven’t been paying sufficient attention, but I,
not being a daily trader of bonds in many years, just noticed something today…
The treasury curve out to ten years, whether measured from
the two year, the six month, or the three month treasury on the short end, is
the steepest it has been all year
But…
The curve from either the five year or the ten year to the
30 year is the flattest it has been all year.
Hmm…
Don’t ask me what this means. I only find it fascinating and have one perhaps
not very good explanation for this phenomenon…
Maybe those who think the treasury market is in for a rally
are playing that hunch at the most obvious, or at least the most potentially
lucrative, point on the curve, i.e., the 30 year. And there are a lot of bulls doing so. Maybe.
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