Showing posts with label ETF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ETF. Show all posts

Monday, September 14, 2015

ETF: EXCHANGE TRADED FRAUD?

9/14/15

This (i.e., Monday, 9/14/15’s, page C1) morning’s Wall Street Journal featured an article entitled “The Problem With ETFs,” which outlined a host of problems with exchange trade funds.   These problems, almost exclusively manifested on the wild trading morning of Monday, August 24, included wide bid/asked spreads, stop orders getting executed at far lower prices than the stop prices, and, most saliently, ETFs’ trading at prices far below the net asset values of the funds.  

The first of these two problems (wide spreads and blown through stop orders) were not at all unique to ETFS on that wild morning; the same problems plagued trading in stocks of individual companies.   The third was an ETF-centric problem; prices of the ETFs were falling much further than were the prices of the stocks comprising the ETF.   Thus, some traders were, to use a technical financial term, screwed if they sold their ETF positions in the panic stricken trading of the morning of 8/24.   On the other hand, some traders, to use another technical financial term, lucked out if they bought during those ulcer inducing hours, or, really, minutes.  The article tells the story of one such fortunate investor, CIC Wealth CEO Ryan Wibberley, who, to his credit, not only had the courage to buy in that panic stricken downdraft but also has the class to admit that he did indeed experience some very good luck that morning.  As Mr. Wibberley put it

“I was just waiting for them to take it away from us.  (i.e., for the exchange to cancel the trades)   There’s someone on the other end who just is not having a good day.

Two observations come to mind to yours truly, who both invests in and trades ETFs.
First, trading is not for the faint of heart.   Most people shouldn’t engage in it.   Most days, I think yours truly shouldn’t engage in it.

Second, the problems of ETFs that manifested themselves on the morning of 8/24 were problems not for investors but only for traders and thus do not detract from the inherent beauty of the ETF product for investors. 

Initially, ETFs were promoted as types of index funds that could be traded throughout the day, which is, effectively, what they are.   The target market at that time was thus people, probably primarily traders, who liked traditional closed end mutual funds, and especially index funds, but didn’t like waiting until the end of the day to close or initiate a position.   Such traders wanted to be able to get in and/or out of a position at any point in the day, often to take advantage of short term fluctuations in the market.   Traders wanting a more exciting sport and/or a bigger adrenaline rush could trade options on ETFs, which were, for obvious reasons, almost instantly active with the introduction and expansion of the ETF market.

However, as time went by, ETFs were seen not only as trading vehicles but also as lower cost alternatives to already low cost index funds for long term investors.   Many ETFs feature expense ratios far lower than comparable closed end index funds.   For example, here are the expense ratios of comparable Vanguard ETFs and closed end index funds: 

                                                Expenses, in basis points
                                              Closed End Fund       ETF
S&P 500 Index                                 17                       5
Total Stock Mkt Index                   14                       5

Bear in mind that the expense ratios on the closed end funds are themselves, to use another technical financial term, super cheap compared to actively managed funds.   And if an investor can put more money to work in Vanguard index funds and thus go to the Admiral class of shares, the expense ratios fall to the same as those of the ETFs.   However, several brokerage firms, including Schwab, TD Ameritrade, and Vanguard’s brokerage arm, allow investors to buy certain ETFs with no commissions, usually with no, or very small, minimum purchases, thus making ETFs, at worst, even money propositions, expense wise, with the cheapest closed end funds.

So while ETFs originally were designed to appeal to traders, or to nervous investors, and still retain that appeal, more and more ETFs are being used as cheaper alternatives to closed end mutual funds by long term investors.  ETFs have served that function exceptionally well…unless, for some reason, investors felt compelled to get out of, or even into, positions precisely during those few hours (minutes, really) on the morning of 8/24 when the market was in turmoil.   Such periods of ETF market inefficiency should be rare…unless the ETF product is fundamentally flawed, which is possible but highly unlikely, given the 25 year track record of the ETF.

Long term investors, in ETFs or otherwise, were not, or should not have been, much fazed, or damaged, by the, er, eccentricities of the trading of the morning of 8/24 or by similar trading which is bound to briefly repeat itself, perhaps in the near future.  They don’t use ETFs as trading vehicles and thus weren’t hurt by wide big/asked spreads, blown through stop orders, or ETFs’ temporarily trading at big discounts to their NAVs.  Such investors were just riding the markets…and paying the lowest possible price for their tickets.   For them, ETFs remain what they have been since their inception, i.e., very low priced and efficient ways to execute long term investment strategies.

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

TREASURY INFLATION PROTECTED SECURITIES (“TIPS”): REPLACING PANIC WITH CALM PERSPECTIVE

6/26/13

As anyone with a pulse who has been able to somehow tear himself or herself away from the “All Blackhawks, All the Time Because, After All, What Could Possibly Be Nearly As Important” coverage here in Chicago knows, bonds have taken a terrific beating of late.  Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (“TIPS”) of which I have been so enamored, and of which I own so many (as a proportion of our total holdings) have been beaten up at least as badly as conventional bonds.  

Some numbers can best convey the carnage in TIPS.   I am using the “closing” 10 year TIP yield (I had to be approximate for 12/10/12 and 6/24/13 on the yields; I’m an investor in TIPs, not a trader of TIPs, and so don’t necessarily follow the yield on a daily basis.) and the closing price of the exchange traded fund (“ETF”) TIP as indicators of levels:

Date                             10 Year TIP yield                     TIP Price
12/10/12 (High)            -1.00% (App)                          123.30

4/5/13 (2013 High)       -0.78%                                     122.57

6/24/13 (2013 Low)     0.60% (App)                            110.02

6/26/13 (Today)           0.54%                                      110.72

Note how tough the last few months have been.   Obviously, I had some doubts about my loyalty to TIPS, especially given the misgivings I expressed in my last post on TIPS, 2/2/13’s YES, I’M STILL HOLDING ONTO MY TIPS and the posts to which it referred my readers. 



But, as I indicated on 6/20/13 (INVESTORS:   HERE’S WHAT TO DO WHEN THERE’S NOWHERE TO GO or…GIMME THAT OLD TIME RELIGION), I have taken no action on my TIPS, or on any of my investment positions, in response to the market turmoil of the last several weeks.  Full disclosure, though…I do have a rebalancing date on Friday and may sell or buy TIPS as part of that rebalancing, but rebalancing has nothing to do with one’s perceptions of the market; it is, instead, the sine qua non of rational investing and must be done religiously regardless of one’s feelings about the market, as I have said and written ad nauseam in the past and will say and write until the day I die.

Besides my aversion to getting emotional and consequently doing dumb things in response to market gyrations, there is another reason I have done nothing on TIPS, or anything else in my portfolios, and do not, on reflection, feel bad about not lightening up on TIP position.  That reason is PERSPECTIVE.

Let’s use the price of the ETF TIP as a surrogate for TIP performance.  I purchased my largest TIP position in three bites…in June, 2004, July, 2005, and June, 2006, coinciding, not at all coincidentally, if you will, with one of my rebalance dates and with my gradualist approach to investing.  I have reinvested all interest payments or, technically, dividends since TIP is an exchange traded fund.   My average price on my TIP position is 104.738, which is, of course, inflated by the reinvestment of dividends at higher TIP prices.   Those 2004, 2005, and 2006 purchases were made at the prices of 102.44, 107.23, and 100.56, respectively.

As can be seen in the numerical array above, TIP closed today at 110.72, considerably above my average price and, more importantly, since these are bonds, I have been collecting, and reinvesting, interest payments along the way.   Further, when I bought those bonds, I didn’t have the expectation that TIP would trade as high as 123.30, at least not as quickly as it did; such price appreciation, when added to the dividends collected and reinvested, would result in an unusually high return a bond investment, or at least for a bond investment in which credit was and is not a consideration.  As loyal readers know, I knew at or about the time of the high that TIPS, like conventional bonds, had run too far, too fast, courtesy of the Fed, and real rates were bound to increase, bringing both conventionals and TIPS down.



So do I wish I had sold my TIPs at or near the high?  Of course, one always wishes one could sell at a high, but, perhaps strangely, I don’t feel bad that I didn’t sell 12 points or so higher. 

Am I crazy?  Why wouldn’t I have liked to have sold something around 123 that is currently trading at 110.72?  The answer is simple:  I am not smart enough to pick the high on anything.   Further, even assuming I got lucky and  picked and sold at the high, I am not smart enough to get back in at a decent entry point.  If I were so “smart” as to think I could trade TIPS, I might have gotten out at 110, a high price relative to my average cost, and gotten back in at 123 rather than the opposite.   So rather than try to do things that I am, and most people are, incapable of doing, I simply held my TIPS position.  In so doing, I have enjoyed a pretty decent return…judging from my 104.74 average price, the 110.72 average price, the coupons, if you will, that I have clipped and reinvested in the intervening years, and the inherent safety of a government issued bond with built-in inflation protection.

Further, at the prevailing yields of 2.54% on the conventional 10 year and 54 basis points (“bps”) on the 10 year TIP, the implied projected inflation rate is 2% for the next ten years.   A lot of people believe that inflation will average less than 2% over the last ten years.  I am not one of them.   On a relative basis, then, I would be a big buyer of TIPS at these levels…if I were inclined to be a trader of, rather than an investor in, TIPS.