MIKE AND LISA MADIGAN: WHAT’S A DAD TO DO?

6/19/13

A poll commissioned by Bill Daley’s gubernatorial campaign (See, inter alia, most recently my 6/17/13 post BILL DALEY’S GRASP OF FINANCE AND ECONOMICS:   WAS I MISINFORMED? and more saliently my 6/13/13 post BILL DALEY AND THE GOVERNOR’S OFFICE:   THE BROTHER ALSO RISES? and my 6/6/13 post “GOVERNOR BILL DALEY…SENATOR BILL DALEY.   THERE JUST WASN’T THE TIME…”) has shown that Lisa Madigan’s being Mike Madigan’s daughter will hurt her if (when?) she runs for governor.  

The poll showed that Lisa Madigan would defeat the only formally announced GOP candidate for governor, State Treasurer Dan Rutherford, by 11 percentage points.  However, when voters were reminded that Lisa Madigan’s dad is House Speaker Mike Madigan, the capo de cappi tuti of Illinois and Chicago politicians and were asked how they’d vote if Mr. Madigan stayed on as speaker, the race between Ms. Madigan and Mr. Rutherford becomes a dead heat.

Hmm…

Several things come to mind.

First, Bill Daley ought to look in the mirror; how does his being Rich Daley’s brother, and Dick Daley’s son, play downstate or in the ‘burbs?   The aforementioned poll did not explore this question.

Second, poll participants had to be reminded that Lisa Madigan’s dad is Mike Madigan?   And these people get to vote?   Remember this the next time someone pontificates on the wonders of democracy.

Third, let’s leave aside for a moment the near fact that if Lisa Madigan were not Mike Madigan’s daughter, she would not have served in the Illinois House and Senate, never been considered for Attorney General, and certainly not now be the governor in waiting.  Let’s instead buy blindly into the silly supposition that Ms. Madigan’s being Mr. Madigan’s daughter actually hurts her.

What could Mike Madigan do to help his daughter if his being Speaker of the House and chairman of the Illinois Democratic Party really is a disadvantage for young Lisa?

Some have suggested that Mr. Madigan could step down as Speaker but retain chairmanship of the Party, where they claim the real power lies.   But those who make this argument are stuck in the ‘60s or ‘70s.  As has long been the case, and as is illustrated, for the careful reader, in my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, the days of the power lying in the party office rather than the public office are long gone.  Rich Daley knew this when he was elected mayor in 1989 and eschewed the post of Cook County Regular Democratic Chairman, which his father held even longer than Richard J. held the mayor’s office.  Young Mr. Daley even left his post as committeeman of the 11^th Ward, giving the post to his brother John.   Rich Daley knew that, largely through the efforts of his father, power had shifted from the Party to the Fifth Floor of City Hall.   To the extent that holding a Party position, even THE Party position, might imperil holding onto the Mayor’s office, young Mr. Daley wanted no part of that party office.

If you don’t believe me, first read my books.   If that doesn’t work, ask how much power the following men, who held the office of Cook County Regular Democratic Party Chairman after Richard J. Daley, wielded.   You might even honestly ask yourself if you remember some of these names:

George Dunne

Ed Vrdolyak

Tom Lyons

Joe Berrios

Fast Eddie Vrdolyak had some power, but he would have had that power even if he weren’t Party Chairman.   A few people remember George Dunne, but largely as something of a Daley lackey or as a guy who got into a little trouble with some comely female county employees in his twilight years.   Does anyone remember Tom Lyons?  I could describe him; nondescript northwest side committeeman who wanted a job no one else wanted.  But even I had to look up his name.   Does anyone think Joe Berrios was or is nearly as powerful as Richard M. Daley or Rahm Emanuel?   Or even Ed Burke?

It’s no different at the state level; the Party is largely toothless in this media age.   Mike Madigan’s power derives not from his heading the Party but, rather, from his having been Speaker for all but a few of the last thirty years, his thus being constantly cultivated by people who know how to return favors, and his therefore having the ability to make or break virtually any Democratic member of the legislature.   Retaining the chairmanship of the Party means little or nothing; ask, if you can remember, the following gentlemen who preceded Mr. Madigan in the post:

Gary LaPaille, who was something of a Madigan lackey who stepped aside for his boss

Vince DeMuzio

Cal Sutker

Mike Madigan, being a good dad, might resign from the Speakership, or even the House, if Lisa becomes governor, and promise to do so during the campaign.   In the opinion of yours truly, however, he would be crazy to do so.   For Mike Madigan, the Speaker’s office is a permanent, lifetime job.   The governor’s office, on the other hand, holds no such employment security.   If Ms. Madigan does run and win, and both are still highly likely, she might serve for eight years; Even if she manages to match Jim Thompson’s 14 year tenure, that would leave her in power only half the time her father has been Speaker. 

Mike Madigan, even as a good father, is highly unlikely to give away the permanent job of Speaker so his daughter can be governor for a relatively few years.   I realize he’s 71 years old, but that isn’t old and I am quite sure that Mr. Madigan doesn’t consider himself old and/or anywhere near the twilight of his career.   I’m not making a prediction here; I don’t know Speaker Madigan and, even if I did, he wouldn’t tell me what he is thinking.  I am saying, however, that to give up the Speaker’s job would be silly and Mr. Madigan is not given to doing silly things; see today’s other post MIKE MADIGAN, JOHN CULLERTON, AND PENSIONS:   SOMETIMES A CIGAR IS JUST A CIGAR?

One supposes that Mr. Madigan could stay in the House but replace himself with some stooge (There is no lack of stooges in Illinois politics.) who would serve as a placeholder until Governor Lisa Madigan either loses office or moves to Washington (or possibly replaces another major Chicago political figure whose ultimate goal is moving to Washington, but I digress) in some capacity or another and Mike Madigan feels safe getting his old job back.  But stooges sometimes start to think that they aren’t so stoogish after all and get comfortable in their old jobs.   The consequences can be dire; see yesterday’s post THE LEGEND LIVES ON FROM THE TEAMSTERS ON DOWN OF THE BIG GUY THEY CALL JIMMY HOFFA.  Mr. Madigan is not likely to take such a chance.

Those who haven’t ignored the obvious in their pursuit of today’s story realize that Lisa Madigan is helped a heck of a lot more than she is hurt by her being Mike Madigan’s daughter.   Mike Madigan is highly unlikely to give up his post as Speaker so that his daughter can become governor for a few years.   Ms. Madigan’s lineage will not hurt her in a Democratic primary, especially a three-way Democratic primary.   And, given the state of the GOP in Illinois today and its, er, lack of credible candidates, her being the Speaker’s daughter might hurt Ms. Madigan, but not fatally so.  Mike Madigan’s having been Speaker more or less continuously for the last thirty years did nothing to stop him from winning a supermajority in the House in 2012, despite pathetic GOP efforts to the contrary.  Either the voters are not as appalled by Mr. Madigan as some people seem to think…or they simply don’t pay enough attention to express their disdain in the voting booth.

See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on how things work in Chicago and Illinois politics.