THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR: A FRIGHTENING HISTORICAL ANALOGY

5/24/13

How about a scary historical analogy to put the Syrian Civil War in perspective?

 (See my many posts on that conflict, mostly written from the perspective of U.S. policy, the most recent of which is WHAT IF BASHAR ASSAD WINS IN SYRIA?, 5/21/13)

The Assad family is of the Alawite branch of Islam, which is closely related to the Shiite branch of Islam.   One might go so far as to say that the Alawites are a branch of the Shiites, but experts in these matters might consider that too simplistic.  The Assads are backed in this civil war by Shiite led Iran and it clients in Lebanon, including Hezbollah, and its clients in Iraq, a majority Shiite country once run by the Sunni Saddam Hussein until the American occupation, which at least temporarily resulted in the Shiites regaining shaky control of that country which itself is riven by what is not yet, but soon will be, called a civil war.

The opposition to Mr. Assad is composed of Sunnis, largely Al Qaeda related groups and Al Qaeda wannabes, and is backed by Sunni dominated regimes, primarily in the Persian Gulf, the most salient of which in the Syrian endeavor is Qatar.  

So what we have in Syria is a civil war, but also much more.   Syria appears to be a smaller theater in which the larger, cooler Sunni-Shiite conflict, which spans at least the greater Middle East, is manifesting itself in much hotter form.

Think back to the late 1930s and the Spanish Civil War.  In that conflict, the Nationalists, most of whom were genuine nationalists but many of whom, including their leader, Francisco Franco, also had Fascist tendencies, were backed by Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy.  The Republicans, many of whom were genuine republicans but many of whom had Communist tendencies, were backed by the Soviet Union.   The Nationalists eventually prevailed and Franco remained in power until his death in 1975.

The Spanish Civil War is largely seen by historians as something of a trial run, or a dress rehearsal, if you will, for the larger European conflict to follow, or perhaps even a first round in the fighting on the eastern front of the European theater in World War II.  The Fascists and the Communists, it is speculated, were just readying their weaponry for the big one to follow.

Could we be seeing the same thing in Syria?   Could we be seeing the Shiite powers, led by Iran, and the Sunni powers, led by the Gulf States, just testing their weaponry, their influence, and their wealth for the big one to follow?

To say we hope not is to understate the case.