AMERICAN ASSURANCES IN SYRIA: A RUSSIAN GUANTANAMO IN AL QAEDA’S COURT?

5/17/13

Russia is apparently stepping up its naval activity in the waters off Syria of late, compounding the complications and the potential for geopolitical blunders that have emerged from the Syrian Civil War.

While we doubtless will hear a resurgence of Cold War rhetoric in the wake of Russian exercises in the eastern Mediterranean, we would do well to remember that the United States is not the only country in the world with legitimate interests.   The Russians have longstanding ties to Syria and to the Assad dynasty.   They would like to keep Bashar Assad in power while we, preferring the devil we don’t know to the devil we do, are insisting that Mr. Assad leave and that Syria become the type of “democratic” paradise that Libya has become, this time right on the border of our ally Israel…but I digress.  (See my 4/28/13 piece OBAMA AND SYRIA:  “…AND A MAN IN MY POSITION CANNOT AFFORD TO LOOK RIDICULOUS!” and my 4/11/13 piece SYRIA:  GROUNDHOG DAY FOR AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY for some further thoughts on our enlightened Syria policy.)

Why do the Russians want to keep Assad in power?   First, Syria is perhaps Russia’s only friend in the Arab world.  Second, the naval “base” (a couple piers and a gas station, really) at Tartus on the Syrian coast is not only the only Russian military base on the Mediterranean but also the only Russian military base outside the former Soviet Union.  

The Tartus base is so important to the Russians that, reportedly, the United States has approached Russia with a potential deal, to wit, if they stop propping up Mr. Assad with weaponry and diplomatic support, we will assure the Russians that they can keep their base at Tartus.

Huh?

How in the world can we assure the Russians they can keep a small base in country on the other side of the world that will surely fall into chaos once Mr. Assad makes his exit and the crazies either take over or turn their guns on each other?    There is no way that we can provide such “assurance” to the Russians who, in any case, are in a better, though only slightly less futile, position to provide said assurance to themselves.  

One can conjure up many ways, however, that we could try to secure the Tartus base for the Russians.  We couldn’t succeed; the result would be enormous financial cost, plenty of American and other blood’s being shed, and ultimate failure…much like Iraq and Afghanistan.  But it doesn’t matter; the “defense” contractors will be mollified and will open their checkbooks for members of the bi-partisan War Party.   One can almost see Senator John McCain and his mini-me, Senator Lindsey Graham, salivating over the prospect.