2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT PRIMARY IN ILLINOIS: ROBIN KELLY-- BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE?

2/18/13

State Senator Toi Hutchinson dropped out of the race to succeed the disgraced Jesse Jackson, Jr. as 2^nd district Congressman in Illinois.   (See 2/16/13’s already seminal post LET’S FINALLY TELL THE TRUTH ABOUT JESSE AND SANDI JACKSON.)  This surprised many observers, including yours truly, though Hutchinson was losing ground of late to her chief rival, long time political hanger-on Robin Kelly, whom Ms. Hutchinson endorsed after dropping out of the race.  

Ms. Hutchinson (pictured) had two big things going for her.   As of the last filing date on 2/6/13, she had more than twice as much money ($199,901 vs. $88,820) in her campaign fund as did Ms. Kelly.   She also had the endorsement Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle.  Ms. Preckwinkle is not only very popular but also used to employ Ms. Kelly; thus, her endorsement of Ms. Hutchinson over her former employee said a lot.   However, there seemed to be momentum building behind Ms. Kelly, resulting in her fundraising picking up considerably in the last few weeks.   The entrance of New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s pro gun control  Independence USA PAC into the race on Ms. Kelly’s side, to the tune of $2.1 million, convinced Ms. Hutchinson it was time to go.

 The suspicion on the part of many, and not only those backing the sole white candidate in the race, former Congressman Debbie Halvorson, is that there was more to Ms. Hutchinson’s dropping out of the race than Mr. Bloomberg’s supporting Ms. Kelly because of Ms. Hutchinson’s record on gun control, which could be construed, after more than a modest amount of twisting and turning, as anti gun control.  In this still racially charged part of the country, the thought is that the black political leadership in the district is coalescing behind Robin Kelly for fear of Debbie Halvorson winning the primary, which is tantamount to winning the election, in a district that was redrawn to assure black representation.

It’s tempting to draw parallels between the 1983 general election for Chicago mayor and the 2013 primary in the 2^nd Congressional district.   In 1983, 1^st District Congressman Harold Washington won the Democratic primary against two white candidates, the incumbent Jane Byrne and Cook County State’s Attorney Rich Daley.   Given the racial character of much of politics in Cook County back then (and now), the Republican nominee, State Representative Bernard Epton, suddenly had a chance to win by drawing the votes of white voters who couldn’t stomach the idea of a black mayor.   Mr. Epton, by no means a bigot, seemed to have gotten caught up in his newfound good fortune, using as a campaign slogan:   “Bernie Epton—Before It’s Too Late.”  And he came reasonably close to wining in this heavily Democratic town; Mr. Washington won 52% to 48%, a very close margin by Chicago standards.

The opposite parallels, if you will, between the 2013 2^nd District race and the 1983 general are not as clear cut as one might suppose, however. 

First, and most obvious, the current race is a primary election while the 1983 Washington/Epton race was a general election.   Thus, Washington could count on the support of those party loyalists who put party before race and could therefore count on a substantial white vote.  But there was substantial support for Republican Bernie Epton coming from white regular Democratic Organization committeemen who put race before party.   The party was split, allowing Epton to make it a race. 

The party is again split in this primary, as is the nature of a primary.  While it seems that most of the powers-that-be are uniting behind Ms. Kelly, there is substantial support for Ms. Halvorson among regulars in the white townships in the district.   And a third major candidate, Alderman Anthony Beale, is a ward committeeman and is likely to draw support not only from his ward but from regulars in the portion of the district that lies in the city of Chicago.

So the primary/general distinction is not as great as one might suppose.   

Second, Bernie Epton was a very unlikely receptacle for the support of whites who were voting nearly solely on the basis of race, some might say on the basis of bigotry.   Mr. Epton was a liberal Jew from Hyde Park, not exactly the type of candidate that white bigots would ardently support were he running against a regular Democrat named, say, O’Brien, Kowalski, Melchiorre, or Siliunas.   Robin Kelly is a black liberal whose race and political philosophy are very much in keeping with the district.  She would thus be a very logical receptacle of the support of liberal black voters. 

Third, the demographics of the district make a victory by Ms. Halvorson very unlikely, even had Toi Hutchinson stayed in the race.  Only 34% of the voters in the district are white.   As much as we would like to wish otherwise, people vote their race.   If Ms. Halvorson got every white vote, the black vote would have to be split nearly evenly among the three (before Ms. Hutchinson’s departure) black candidates for her to win.   (When Ms. Halvorson ran against Mr. Jackson in the primary in 2012, she was trounced 71% to 29%.)  Ms. Halvorson also claims that she will be outspent 30-1 by Ms. Kelly.   But she’s wrong; if you count Mayor Bloomberg’s money, she will be outspent 40-1.   Simply put, Debbie Halvorson, because of her race but also because she is not a very compelling candidate and is not well financed, never had much of a chance in the primary, with or without Toi Hutchinson in the race.

A better parallel might be drawn between the current primary in the 2^nd District and the 1983 primary for mayor in which, as I said before, Harold Washington won the race because the white vote was split nearly evenly between Mr. Daley and Ms. Byrne; the actual outcome was

Washington                  37%

Byrne                           33%

Daley                           30%

Until the last few weeks of the race, moreover, Mr. Washington was not expected to be a factor; that was a Byrne/Daley race until Mr. Washington came out of seemingly nowhere to win.  (And it was an ugly enough race even before Washington entered the race and the anti-black bigotry rose to the surface.   Remember the Daley supporters and their unsanctioned “Dump the b----, vote for Rich” signs?)

Doubtless, the black political power structure was thinking about this outcome when they persuaded Toi Hutchinson to leave the race, but they still might have a parallel situation on their hands.   There are three major candidates remaining:   Robin Kelly, Anthony Beale, and Debbie Halvorson, the latter of whom is the only white candidate.   In addition, there is a host of minor candidates, most, if not all, of whom are black.   So there is the potential for racial ticket splitting resulting in a Halvorson victory.  

However, again, the demographics of the 2^nd district are very different from the demographics of Chicago in 1983.   Every white vote wouldn’t win the race for Ms. Halvorson even in a crowded field.   And Debbie Halvorson is no Harold Washington.

Yes, race permeates politics in Chicago and its environs, even to this day, but that doesn’t mean the 2^nd Congressional race is an eerie reverse parallel of the 1983 mayoral general or primary election.

See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on how things work in Chicago and Illinois politics. 

HOW DID CYNTHIA BRIM GET ON THE BENCH…AND STAY THERE FOR NEARLY TWENTY YEARS?

2/5/13

Cook County Judge Cynthia Brim was found not guilty by reason of insanity of battery charges arising from an incident back in March, 2012 in which she shoved a sheriff’s deputy after tossing courtroom keys at the deputy and his cohorts working security at the Daley Center.  It was quite clear that the insanity defense would work.    On the day of the alleged battery, Judge Brim, meaning to go downtown to protest an online article criticizing a fellow judge, got off the bus at 47^th Street and apparently walked the six miles downtown and showed up at the Daley Center in hospital scrubs, a fur coat and hat.   This obviously aroused the suspicion of the Daley Center security detail, who had no idea she was a judge since she worked out of a courtroom in south suburban Markham and judges, even in Cook County, don’t normally come to work in scrubs and a fur coat.   Deputies who testified at the trial described her as “irrational” and “catatonic” that day, but, given the state of the judiciary in Cook County, one suspects that such traits did nothing to add to their suspicions that Judge Brim was not, indeed, a judge, but I digress.   At any rate, the Judge’s bizarre behavior led to the alleged battery and also to her ultimate conditional legal absolution.

The bigger question for Cook County residents and taxpayers (Judge Brim has been relived of her duties since the incident but continues to collect her $182,000 per year salary.  Hey, such stellar legal talent doesn’t come cheap, but, again, I digress.) is why Judge Brim was ever on the bench.  She has been hospitalized five times for psychotic episodes, once before and four times since her election to the bench in 1993.  At the time of her election, she was 35 years old, ten years out of law school, and had a resume bereft of private practice but featuring a series of jobs with Mayors Harold Washington and Richard M. Daley and Attorney General Roland Burris.   She was reelected in November, 2012, eight months after the alleged battery and while on the paid leave that resulted from that incident, with the support of the Cook County Regular Democratic Organization.

Judge Cynthia Brim appeared unqualified at the time of her original slating for, and perfunctory election to, the bench in 1993.   She did nothing while on the bench to dissuade anybody of that notion.   She has been a very sick person for her entire tenure as a judge.  And yet she has been on the bench for nearly twenty years.   But she was, and remains, a judge because, in Cook County, judges are elected, Chicago style.   Voters don’t pay attention to the judicial ballot; even yours truly, who follows politics more closely than does the average bear, doesn’t pay attention to the judicial ballot unless I know one of the candidates personally or through friends.   But instead of simply not voting for judges, like I do, on the theory that an uninformed vote is far worse than no vote at all, people randomly fill out their judicial ballots or simply vote for the candidate endorsed (slated) by the Cook County Regular Democratic Organization.

Given that few people vote for judge and many of those that do are politically motivated to do so, slating for the bench by the Cook County Regular Democratic Organization is tantamount to election.  That slating is, and has been for years, dominated by 14^th Ward Alderman and Committeeman Ed Burke.  Consequently, judicial candidates are not chosen based on their legal acumen or experience but, rather, based primarily on their political affiliations and loyalties, which, in most cases, must run toward the Organization, Mr. Burke, and the few other pols who have some hand in the process.

Is this any way to select a third branch of government?  

The obvious argument is for appointment, rather than election, of judges, as is done in most other jurisdictions in this country.   This course of action is also fraught with peril, given that, like everything else in and around Chicago, that selection process would be dripping with politics.  But the current system of electing, and slating, judges is tantamount to appointment with the mere façade of an election, so how much worse could actual appointment be?

Even though it is not known as one of the nation’s stellar systems, it’s a miracle that the Cook County court system works as well as it does.   But we can’t count on miracles forever.  It would seem that the system of slating, for certain election, political hacks, lackeys, toadies, and hangers-on, along with a few random and largely coincidental fine legal minds, has to come to an end.   Or would the alternative be just as scary?

See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on this subject.