2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT PRIMARY IN ILLINOIS: ROBIN KELLY-- BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE?

2/18/13

State Senator Toi Hutchinson dropped out of the race to succeed the disgraced Jesse Jackson, Jr. as 2^nd district Congressman in Illinois.   (See 2/16/13’s already seminal post LET’S FINALLY TELL THE TRUTH ABOUT JESSE AND SANDI JACKSON.)  This surprised many observers, including yours truly, though Hutchinson was losing ground of late to her chief rival, long time political hanger-on Robin Kelly, whom Ms. Hutchinson endorsed after dropping out of the race.  

Ms. Hutchinson (pictured) had two big things going for her.   As of the last filing date on 2/6/13, she had more than twice as much money ($199,901 vs. $88,820) in her campaign fund as did Ms. Kelly.   She also had the endorsement Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle.  Ms. Preckwinkle is not only very popular but also used to employ Ms. Kelly; thus, her endorsement of Ms. Hutchinson over her former employee said a lot.   However, there seemed to be momentum building behind Ms. Kelly, resulting in her fundraising picking up considerably in the last few weeks.   The entrance of New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s pro gun control  Independence USA PAC into the race on Ms. Kelly’s side, to the tune of $2.1 million, convinced Ms. Hutchinson it was time to go.

 The suspicion on the part of many, and not only those backing the sole white candidate in the race, former Congressman Debbie Halvorson, is that there was more to Ms. Hutchinson’s dropping out of the race than Mr. Bloomberg’s supporting Ms. Kelly because of Ms. Hutchinson’s record on gun control, which could be construed, after more than a modest amount of twisting and turning, as anti gun control.  In this still racially charged part of the country, the thought is that the black political leadership in the district is coalescing behind Robin Kelly for fear of Debbie Halvorson winning the primary, which is tantamount to winning the election, in a district that was redrawn to assure black representation.

It’s tempting to draw parallels between the 1983 general election for Chicago mayor and the 2013 primary in the 2^nd Congressional district.   In 1983, 1^st District Congressman Harold Washington won the Democratic primary against two white candidates, the incumbent Jane Byrne and Cook County State’s Attorney Rich Daley.   Given the racial character of much of politics in Cook County back then (and now), the Republican nominee, State Representative Bernard Epton, suddenly had a chance to win by drawing the votes of white voters who couldn’t stomach the idea of a black mayor.   Mr. Epton, by no means a bigot, seemed to have gotten caught up in his newfound good fortune, using as a campaign slogan:   “Bernie Epton—Before It’s Too Late.”  And he came reasonably close to wining in this heavily Democratic town; Mr. Washington won 52% to 48%, a very close margin by Chicago standards.

The opposite parallels, if you will, between the 2013 2^nd District race and the 1983 general are not as clear cut as one might suppose, however. 

First, and most obvious, the current race is a primary election while the 1983 Washington/Epton race was a general election.   Thus, Washington could count on the support of those party loyalists who put party before race and could therefore count on a substantial white vote.  But there was substantial support for Republican Bernie Epton coming from white regular Democratic Organization committeemen who put race before party.   The party was split, allowing Epton to make it a race. 

The party is again split in this primary, as is the nature of a primary.  While it seems that most of the powers-that-be are uniting behind Ms. Kelly, there is substantial support for Ms. Halvorson among regulars in the white townships in the district.   And a third major candidate, Alderman Anthony Beale, is a ward committeeman and is likely to draw support not only from his ward but from regulars in the portion of the district that lies in the city of Chicago.

So the primary/general distinction is not as great as one might suppose.   

Second, Bernie Epton was a very unlikely receptacle for the support of whites who were voting nearly solely on the basis of race, some might say on the basis of bigotry.   Mr. Epton was a liberal Jew from Hyde Park, not exactly the type of candidate that white bigots would ardently support were he running against a regular Democrat named, say, O’Brien, Kowalski, Melchiorre, or Siliunas.   Robin Kelly is a black liberal whose race and political philosophy are very much in keeping with the district.  She would thus be a very logical receptacle of the support of liberal black voters. 

Third, the demographics of the district make a victory by Ms. Halvorson very unlikely, even had Toi Hutchinson stayed in the race.  Only 34% of the voters in the district are white.   As much as we would like to wish otherwise, people vote their race.   If Ms. Halvorson got every white vote, the black vote would have to be split nearly evenly among the three (before Ms. Hutchinson’s departure) black candidates for her to win.   (When Ms. Halvorson ran against Mr. Jackson in the primary in 2012, she was trounced 71% to 29%.)  Ms. Halvorson also claims that she will be outspent 30-1 by Ms. Kelly.   But she’s wrong; if you count Mayor Bloomberg’s money, she will be outspent 40-1.   Simply put, Debbie Halvorson, because of her race but also because she is not a very compelling candidate and is not well financed, never had much of a chance in the primary, with or without Toi Hutchinson in the race.

A better parallel might be drawn between the current primary in the 2^nd District and the 1983 primary for mayor in which, as I said before, Harold Washington won the race because the white vote was split nearly evenly between Mr. Daley and Ms. Byrne; the actual outcome was

Washington                  37%

Byrne                           33%

Daley                           30%

Until the last few weeks of the race, moreover, Mr. Washington was not expected to be a factor; that was a Byrne/Daley race until Mr. Washington came out of seemingly nowhere to win.  (And it was an ugly enough race even before Washington entered the race and the anti-black bigotry rose to the surface.   Remember the Daley supporters and their unsanctioned “Dump the b----, vote for Rich” signs?)

Doubtless, the black political power structure was thinking about this outcome when they persuaded Toi Hutchinson to leave the race, but they still might have a parallel situation on their hands.   There are three major candidates remaining:   Robin Kelly, Anthony Beale, and Debbie Halvorson, the latter of whom is the only white candidate.   In addition, there is a host of minor candidates, most, if not all, of whom are black.   So there is the potential for racial ticket splitting resulting in a Halvorson victory.  

However, again, the demographics of the 2^nd district are very different from the demographics of Chicago in 1983.   Every white vote wouldn’t win the race for Ms. Halvorson even in a crowded field.   And Debbie Halvorson is no Harold Washington.

Yes, race permeates politics in Chicago and its environs, even to this day, but that doesn’t mean the 2^nd Congressional race is an eerie reverse parallel of the 1983 mayoral general or primary election.

See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on how things work in Chicago and Illinois politics.